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One of the top items considered very carefully by investors when looking at investment packages is the rate of return. It is not surprising that the first question they ask for when presented with an investment proposal is the rate of return. The rate of return is evaluated with reference to a certain period of time.

All investors are confronted with the big question of how much the rate of return should be. What is the appropriate or ideal rate of return against which all investments can be measured? For example, your bank suggests you put your money into a time deposit account which pays 5% rate of return compounded annually, how can you tell if it is good investment with a good rate of return?

Three factors need to be taken into consideration if we are to answer the question properly: inflation, taxation, and the highest rate of return possible for the “safest investment” of all.

To start with, what is inflation? Wikipedia calls it “a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time”. Inflation erodes the value of money. Your P1,000 now may not be worth much 20 years from now because of the constantly rising prices of good and services. Three years from now and you probably may not be able to buy what you can buy with your P1,000 today.

Next on the list is taxation. Everybody knows this subject. Taxes is what keeps the government alive. Tax rates vary and depends a lot on whoever is in power.

The third consideration is the highest rate of return for what is believed as the “safest investment” which is, of course, government bonds. These are considered very safe by the very fact that they are fully backed by the government. Since it is unlikely for a government to go bankrupt except when it is in political turmoil, it is inconceivable that it would renege on its obligation.

Together, these three factors will come into play when computing for the ideal rate of return.

Mary Buffett and David Clark explain in the book “Buffetology” the interplay between these three factors. According to Warren Buffett, one of the world’s wealthiest and greatest stock market investor that the minimum rate of investment should not fall below 15%. In Chapter 25 of the book, the author estimated that just to cushion inflation and taxation, a 7.2% return on investment is needed. The book concludes that “to have a real increase in your wealth, it is necessary that the return on your wealth be at least equal to the effects of taxation and inflation”.

Focusing on the effect of inflation and taxation on the rate of return, the author cautioned that investing in bonds with an annual compounding rate of return of 8% would probably leave a rate of return of only 0.5% (8% less 31% income tax, less 5% inflation). Or worse, zero rate of return if the inflation rate rise to 9%. In conclusion, it does not make sense then to invest in government bonds or in any investment if the rate of return offered is below 8%.

Warren Buffet knows the importance of having a “wide margin of safety”. In keeping with which, he insists on 15% rate of return. Minus inflation and taxes, he is assured with a growth of about 8% rate of return compounded annually.

What makes government bonds an interesting consideration? Not only are they the safest investments but also they give the highest possible rate of return. Thus it has become the standard by which all other investments are measured. So if an investment can give only an 8% rate of return, it is better to invest in government bonds that guarantee 8% return on investment, rather than risking it in other investments. Should you find however, that a certain investment has a rate of return of over and above 15%, then put your money in that investment rather than in government bonds.

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